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Oh No... - The Cover Story
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Mon, Mar. 14th, 2005 09:49 am
Oh No...

God help us, our army is in Iraq and we're going to go to war with China.

8CommentReplyShare

pezzonovante
pezzonovante
pezzonovante
Mon, Mar. 14th, 2005 05:16 pm (UTC)

But all we have to do is park the Pacific Fleet near Taiwan and then we can shell & bomb the chinese coast until the Taiwanese can walk from Taipei to Shanghai without getting wet.


ReplyThread
bronzite
bronzite
Robert Bronzite
Mon, Mar. 14th, 2005 05:25 pm (UTC)

That's assuming the Chinese don't engage the United States. Carrier taskforces are very vulnerable to ground-fired cruise missiles and aerial attacks. If China tries to take Taiwan, they're either going to gamble that we won't interfere (not likely), or they'll pop CVN-70 before going in.


ReplyThread Parent
purly
purly
...
Mon, Mar. 14th, 2005 06:56 pm (UTC)

Do we even know how to defend ourselves from an attack on our land?
heh
heh heh...


ReplyThread Parent
sirroxton
sirroxton
Adam Augusta
Tue, Mar. 15th, 2005 04:33 pm (UTC)

Wow, you really think China would strike first?


ReplyThread Parent
bronzite
bronzite
Robert Bronzite
Tue, Mar. 15th, 2005 04:54 pm (UTC)

The generally accepted timeline is:

Taiwan declares independence.
China cites the Anti-Succession bill and invades Taiwan across the Taiwain Strait.
The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, operating somewhere in the South China Sea, engages the Chinese invasion force as it crosses the strait. The Chinese use the merchant marine, because they don't have nearly the naval assets to move their army en masse. Small wooden vessels carrying about half a dozen troops each follow the wave of landing ships toward Taiwan. The US taskforce sinks all the major transports as they cross the strait, leaving tens of thousands of fishing boats-turned-troop transports without a vanguard. Chinese doctrine suggests they would press on with the invasion, and land 60,000 scattered troops on the island, all over the northwestern shore. Most would be killed leaving their transports, and the survivors would be overwhelmed by even Taiwan's meager defense force.

To be effective, China needs to eliminate the Third Fleet's presence in the area of engagement, which means disabling or destroying not only Carl Vinson, but also USS Antietam, the Ticonderoga assigned to the strike group, and probably also the Mustin and the O'Kane (DDG's) as well, to eliminate the threat of surface-to-surface missiles striking their transports. Of course, China has a number of ways to handle this engagement, but as long as that taskforce is within range of the Taiwan Strait, China's only option is to disable or destroy it.


ReplyThread Parent
sirroxton
sirroxton
Adam Augusta
Tue, Mar. 15th, 2005 05:59 pm (UTC)

Scary scenario, John, but what I want to know is whether you would put money, double-or-nothing, on the odds that China and the US actually go to war. I'm hoping the answer will help me sleep better tonight. :)


ReplyThread Parent
bronzite
bronzite
Robert Bronzite
Tue, Mar. 15th, 2005 06:39 pm (UTC)

Seriously? If Taiwan declares independence, the United States will go to war with the PRC. How far that escalates is uncertain, but we will see the biggest amphibious landing attempt in history, and the only thing in its path will be the US Third Fleet, almost certainly represented by only the CVCSG.

What are the odds Taiwan will declare independence? That I can't put money on, but it seems to become more likely with each new move Beijing makes.


ReplyThread Parent
sirroxton
sirroxton
Adam Augusta
Tue, Mar. 15th, 2005 06:44 pm (UTC)

That doesn't make me feel much better, but I appreciate the analysis.


ReplyThread Parent